Hiki i ka 2022 ke lilo i makahiki nui no nā mea hana e hoʻopukapuka ana i ka ʻenehana a me ka hoʻoponopono ʻana i ʻelua mau pilikia nui o ka ʻoihana: ka nele o nā limahana a me kahi kaulahao lako paʻa ʻole.Getty Images
ʻO Chris Kuehl i kēlā me kēia mahina, International Economic Analyst for Manufacturers and Manufacturers Association. Peresidena a me ka Pelekikena o Armada Corporate Intelligence, i hoʻokumu ʻia ma Lawrence, Kan., me ka hui pū me Morris, Nelson & Associates, Leavenworth, Kan., e hoʻomaka i ka Armada Strategic Intelligence System ( ASIS). I loko o ia mea, ua wehewehe ʻo Kuehl a me kāna hui i ka ʻāpana ʻāpana o ka hana ʻana e pili ana i ka ʻoihana hana metala. ke hoʻomau nei ka hoʻihoʻi hou ʻana, ʻoiai naʻe e haʻalulu ana, ʻoiai ua hoʻihoʻi hou ʻia nā kaulahao hoʻolako honua. Ke holo nei kekahi mau hana hana metala, ʻoiai ʻaʻole ikaika nā poʻe ʻē aʻe e like me ka hiki iā lākou - ʻoiai lākou nā lako a me nā kānaka e pono ai lākou e hoʻokō i ka hana ( e nānā i ke kiʻi 1).
"Ke ʻike nei mākou i ka hoʻomau ʻana i nā ʻano koi ma waena o ka wā lōʻihi i nā mākeke hopena a mākou e lawelawe ai, a me ka ulu ʻana o ka hoihoi i kā mākou lawelawe mai nā ʻoihana ʻē aʻe," wahi a Bob Kamphuis, Luna Hoʻokele/CEO/Peresidena o nā Contracts Manufacturing nunui MEC ma kāna. ʻO ka hālāwai kūkā i kēlā me kēia hapaha makahiki me nā mea hoʻopukapuka kālā i Nowemapa.ʻAʻole kēia ma muli o ka hapa o nā mea maka no MEC, akā no ka hapa o nā mea kūʻai aku o MEC.
Ua hoʻohui ʻo Kamphuis i ka hāʻawi ʻana i nā lako MEC ma Mayville, Wisconsin a ma ka hapa hikina o ka US me ke kaulahao lako - me ke kaulahao lako lako - "ua hoʻopilikia wale ʻia.ʻO ia ke ʻano o ka hiki i kā mākou mea kūʻai aku ke hoʻonui i kā lākou E mākaukau mākou ke kūʻai aku mākou.
ʻOiai ʻo ia kekahi o nā mea hana aelike nui loa ma US (a helu pinepine ʻia ʻo #1 ma ka FABRICATOR's FAB 40 Top Manufacturers list), lawelawe ʻo MEC i kahi kokoke i kēlā me kēia ʻoihana i ka wanana ASIS mahina a Kuehl, a pili paha ka nui o kēia ʻoihana i ka ʻike MEC.
ʻO ka hana metala US he ʻoihana hana i hoʻopaʻa ʻia i ka hoʻolako ʻana i nā kaulahao. Pono nā kaulahao e hoʻopaʻa, a hiki i ka wā e hana ai, e hoʻomau ka piʻi ʻana o ka inflationary.
Hoʻopuka ka hōʻike ASIS i ka ʻike mai ka papahana Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) o St. Louis Fed no ke kiʻi nui, nā ʻikepili hana ʻenehana e uhi ana i ka hana paʻa a me ka hana ʻole. ʻāpana metala mua e hāʻawi ana i nā mea maka i nā mea hana metala, a laila hāʻawi i nā ʻāpana i nā ʻoihana like ʻole.
Aia nā mea hana ma nā ʻano o nā ʻano i hoʻohana ʻia e ke aupuni no ka hoʻokaʻawale ʻana i nā mea hana, me nā huahana metala i hana ʻia, kahi ʻāpana āpau e pili ana i ke kūkulu ʻana a me nā metala;ka paila, pahu a me ka hana moku;a me nā mea e hāʻawi ana i nā lawelawe i nā ʻāpana ʻē aʻe.ʻAʻole uhi ka hōʻike ASIS i nā wahi āpau i uhi ʻia e nā mea hana metala - ʻaʻohe hōʻike - akā uhi ia i nā wahi kūʻai aku no ka hapa nui o nā metala i hana ʻia, ka pā a me ka paipu ma ka ʻāina. i ka mea e hiki ai i ka ʻoihana ke alo i 2022.
Wahi a ka ʻOkakopa ASIS hōʻike (ma muli o ka ʻikepili Sepatemaba), aia nā mea hana i kahi mākeke ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi ma mua o ka hana ʻana ma ke ʻano holoʻokoʻa. 2022—akā, e ulu ana kēia ulu ʻana ma kahi ʻoihana ʻoihana i hoʻopilikia ʻia e ka hoʻopau ʻana i ke kaulahao.
Hōʻike ka manaʻo o ka hōʻike no ka hana ʻenehana paʻa a paʻa ʻole i kēia hoʻololi (e nānā i ke Kiʻi 2). ua hōʻole ʻia e kekahi mau pākēneka i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o 2023.
E ʻike ka ʻāpana metala mua i ka ulu nui ma 2022 (e ʻike i ke Kiʻi 3). He kumu maikaʻi kēia no ka ʻoihana ʻoihana ma lalo o ke kaulahao lako, ʻoiai hiki i nā mea hana a me nā mea ʻē aʻe ke hoʻomau i ka hoʻonui ʻana i ke kumukūʻai.
Kiʻi 1 He ʻāpana kēia kiʻi kiʻi o ka wānana kikoʻī i hoʻokuʻu ʻia e Armada's Strategic Intelligence System (ASIS) i Nowemapa, e hōʻike ana i nā wānana no nā ʻoihana kikoʻī. He ʻokoʻa iki nā helu. ʻAʻole naʻe, hōʻike ʻo ʻOkakopa a me Nowemapa ASIS i ka volatility a me ka manawa kūpono ma 2022.
"Mai ke kila a hiki i ka nickel, aluminika, keleawe a me nā metala ʻē aʻe e pili ana i ka ʻoihana, ke ʻike nei mākou i nā kiʻekiʻe o nā manawa āpau," i kākau ai ʻo Kuhl. hopu… Ua hōʻike kekahi mau mea kūʻai aku ke ʻike nei lākou i ka loaʻa ʻana o ka huahana.Akā ma ka holoʻokoʻa, hopohopo ka lako honua. "
E like me ka manawa paʻi, ua kūkākūkā ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa a me ʻEulopa i kahi ʻaelike hou kahi e hoʻololi ai nā kumukūʻai ma ke kila a me ka alumini mai ka European Union o 25% a me 10%, kēlā me kēia, e hoʻololi ʻole. E ʻae ʻo ʻAmelika i kahi palena palena o ka lawe ʻana mai me ke dute-free mai ʻEulopa. E ʻike ʻia ka hopena o kēia ma nā kumukūʻai waiwai i ka wā lōʻihi. i kēlā me kēia manawa koke.
ʻO nāʻoihana a pau a nā mea hana e lawelawe nei,ʻo kaʻoihana kaʻa kaʻoi aku o ka maʻalahi (e nānā i ka Figure 4). Ua emi nui kaʻoihana i ka hapaha mua a me ka lua o 2021 ma mua o ka loaʻaʻana o ka manawa ma ka hopena o ka makahiki. E like me nā wānana ASIS, kēia manawa. e hoʻomau i ka hoʻoikaika ʻana i ka hapaha mua a me ka lua o 2022, ma mua o ka lohi hou ʻana ma hope o ka makahiki. Ma ke ʻano holoʻokoʻa, e ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka ʻoihana, akā e lilo ia i huakaʻi. microchips.
"ʻO nā ʻoihana e hilinaʻi nui nei i nā chipsets ke kū nei i ka manaʻo nāwaliwali loa," i kākau ai ʻo Kuhl i Kepakemapa.
ʻO nā helu hoʻololi i ka wānana kaʻa e hōʻike ana i ka loli o ke kūlana. E emi ana ma hope o ka makahiki, ʻo ia paha ka hopena o ka hoʻolako ʻole ʻana. Eia hou, hoʻi ia i nā microchips a me nā mea i kūʻai ʻia.
Ke ulu wikiwiki nei ka māla aerospace. E like me kā Cool i kākau ai i ka mahina ʻo Kepakemapa, "He maikaʻi loa ka nānā ʻana no ka ʻoihana mokulele, e wikiwiki ana i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o 2022 a ke hoʻomau nei i ke kiʻekiʻe a puni ka makahiki.ʻO kēia kekahi o nā manaʻo maikaʻi loa no ka ʻoihana holoʻokoʻa. "
Manaʻo ʻo ASIS i ka piʻi ʻana o ka makahiki ma mua o 22% ma waena o 2020 a me 2021—ʻaʻole kūʻokoʻa loa i ka noʻonoʻo ʻana i ke ala o ka ʻoihana i ʻike mua ʻia i ka maʻi maʻi (e nānā i ke Kiʻi 5). ʻelua hapaha. Ma ka hopena o ka makahiki, wānana ka hōʻike i ka ulu ʻana o ka ʻoihana aerospace i kahi 22%.
Aia kēia māhele i nā lako kukui, nā mea hana hale, a me nā ʻāpana uila like ʻole e pili ana i ka hāʻawi ʻana i ka mana. Ke kū nei nā ʻoihana e lawelawe ana i kēia mau mākeke niche i ke ʻano like: aia ke koi akā ʻaʻohe lako, a ke hoʻomau nei ka piʻi ʻana o ka inflationary i ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai. i ka hapa mua o ka makahiki, a laila emi loa, a palahalaha loa i ka hopena o ka makahiki (e nana i ke Kii 6).
E like me kā Kuhl i kākau ai, "ʻO nā mea koʻikoʻi e like me nā microchips ke maopopo nei ka pōkole.Akā naʻe, ʻaʻole i hana ʻo Copper i nā poʻomanaʻo e like me nā metala ʻē aʻe, "e hoʻohui ana ua piʻi ke kumukūʻai keleawe he 41% i kēlā me kēia makahiki a hiki i Kepakemapa 2021.
Aia kēia māhele i nā kukui kukui a me nā pā metala i hoʻohana nui ʻia i nā hale kūʻai, kahi ʻoihana e pā ʻia nei e nā ʻano wahi hana ākea. Ke emi nei ka emi.
Kiʻi 2 ʻO ka ulu ʻana o ka hana ʻoihana holoʻokoʻa, me ka hana ʻana i nā huahana paʻa ʻole a paʻa ʻole, hiki ke hoʻomau ʻia i ka makahiki 2022. ʻO ka ulu ʻana i ka hana ʻana i nā huahana paʻa, ʻo ia hoʻi ka hana metala, ʻoi aku paha ia ma mua o ka hana ākea, ʻoiai naʻe.
Aia ka ʻoihana i ka hana ʻoihana mahiʻai a me nā ʻāpana ʻē aʻe he nui, a mai Kepakemapa 2021, ʻo ka pihi ulu o ka ʻoihana kekahi o nā mea i ʻōlelo ʻia ma ASIS (e ʻike i ke Kiʻi 7). ʻO ke ala no nā kumu ʻekolu," kākau ʻo Kuhl. ʻO ka mea mua, ua hoʻopaneʻe nā hale kūʻai, nā hale hana a me nā mea hōʻuluʻulu i ka capex 2020, no laila ke hopu nei i kēia manawa. ʻO ka lua, manaʻo nui ka poʻe e piʻi nā kumukūʻai, no laila makemake nā hui e kūʻai i nā mīkini ma mua o ia manawa. ʻO ke kolu, ʻoiaʻiʻo. , ʻo ka nele o ka hana a me ka hoʻoikaika ʻana i ka mīkini a me ka automation ma waena o ka hana, logistic, transport, a me nā ʻāpana ʻē aʻe o ka hoʻokele waiwai.
"Ke wikiwiki nei ka hoʻolilo ʻana i ka mahiʻai," i ʻōlelo ai ʻo Kull, "ʻoiai ke koi nei ka meaʻai honua i ka ulu nui ʻana o nā mahiʻai ʻoihana."
ʻO ka laina maʻamau no ka hana metala e hōʻike ana i ka awelika, ma ka pae ʻoihana pākahi, hilinaʻi nui i ka hui ʻana o ka mea kūʻai aku o ka hale kūʻai. Ua hele kekahi mea kūʻai nui i ka hema, a ua paʻa ke kālā o kahi hale hana.
ʻO nā mea a pau i noʻonoʻo ʻia, ua hāʻule ka laina maʻamau me nā ʻoihana ʻē aʻe a pau i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o 2020, akā ʻaʻole i ka nui. kaulahao lako. Akā naʻe, e hoʻomaka ana ma ʻApelila 2022, manaʻo ʻo ASIS e ʻike i kekahi mau lanakila kaulana i ka ulu ʻana o nā puke (e nānā i ke Kiʻi 8).
Ua wehewehe ʻo Kuehl i kahi ʻoihana i ka makahiki 2022 e pili ana i nā pilikia i ke kaulahao lako kaʻa a me nā hemahema o nā microchips a me nā mea ʻē aʻe. maikaʻi loa ka ʻoihana hana metala ma 2022.
"ʻO kekahi o kā mākou mea nui nui ka mālama ʻana a me ka hoʻonui ʻana i kā mākou waihona limahana akamai e kōkua iā mākou e ʻike i kā mākou ulu ulu.Manaʻo mākou e hoʻomau ka loaʻa ʻana o ka poʻe kūpono i mea nui no ka wā e hiki mai ana ma ka hapa nui o kā mākou mau ʻāina.Ke hoʻohana nei kā mākou mau pūʻulu HR i nā ʻano hoʻolālā hoʻolālā noʻonoʻo, a ma ke ʻano he ʻoihana e hoʻomau mākou i ka hoʻopukapuka ʻana i ka automation a me ka ʻenehana.
Ua hana ʻo MEC's Kamphuis i nā ʻōlelo i nā mea hoʻopukapuka i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o Nowemapa, me ka hoʻohui ʻana ua loaʻa ka ʻoihana a hiki i $ 40 miliona i nā kālā kālā no kāna kahua hou 450,000-square-foot ma 2021 wale nō. Hazel Park, Michigan mea kanu.
Hōʻike ka ʻike MEC i nā ʻano ʻoihana ʻoi aku ka nui. ʻOi aku ma mua o ka manawa, pono nā mea hana i ka hiki ke hiki ke hiki iā lākou ke piʻi wikiwiki a pane i ka kānalua.
Ke hoʻomau nei ka ʻenehana i ka hoʻokele ʻana i ka ʻoihana i mua, akā ʻelua mau kaohi i mea paʻakikī i ka ulu ʻana: ka nele o nā limahana a me kahi kaulahao lako ʻike ʻole.
Ua uhi ʻo Tim Heston, Luna Hoʻoponopono Nui ma The FABRICATOR, i ka ʻoihana hana metala mai ka makahiki 1998, e hoʻomaka ana i kāna ʻoihana me ka American Welding Society's Welding Magazine. Ua komo ʻo ia i ka limahana FABRICATOR ma ʻOkakopa 2007.
ʻO FABRICATOR ka mea alakaʻi o ʻAmelika ʻAmelika i ka hana metala a me ka ʻoihana hana.
I kēia manawa me ke komo piha ʻana i ka paʻi kikohoʻe o The FABRICATOR, hiki ke maʻalahi i nā kumuwaiwai waiwai waiwai.
Loaʻa ka paʻi kikohoʻe o The Tube & Pipe Journal i kēia manawa, e hāʻawi maʻalahi ana i nā kumuwaiwai waiwai waiwai.
E hauʻoli i ke komo piha i ka paʻi kikohoʻe o STAMPING Journal, e hāʻawi ana i nā holomua ʻenehana hou, nā hana maikaʻi loa a me nā nūhou ʻoihana no ka mākeke stamping metal.
E hauʻoli i ke komo piha ʻana i ka paʻi kikohoʻe o The Additive Report e aʻo ai pehea e hoʻohana ʻia ai ka hana hoʻohui i mea e hoʻomaikaʻi ai i ka hana a hoʻonui i ka loaʻa kālā.
I kēia manawa me ke komo piha i ka paʻi kikohoʻe o The Fabricator en Español, hiki ke maʻalahi i nā kumu waiwai waiwai.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Feb-17-2022